Sergio’s Last Stand: Sell Chrysler To Google, Spin off Dodge-Jeep

I’ve written a few posts on our good Italian friend and leader of FCA, Sergio Marchionne, over the last few years. Most notably, I was incredibly critical of his view that combining FCA with any other carmaker was not the way forward. Since that post which he undoubtedly did not read, Mr. Marchionne has not had much luck in convincing any automaker of the argument.

In fact, he’s recently alluded that before his tenure as CEO is up in 2019, he may be changing his tune. Adam Jonas, a Morgan Stanley banker I wish I knew and who’s best known for his provocative bets on Tesla’s success, asked Marchionne if spinning off Jeep and Ram would be possible, to which he replied flatly “yes.”

Mr. Marchionne’s change in tone could signal that it’s more than just possible, but the suitors for who might buy the spun-off brands, or whether they’re just spun into their own public entities that Marchionne still runs is yet to be seen.

For me, FCA has some jewels and some not-so-jewels. The jewels are the red-hot Jeep and Dodge brands that are distinctly catering to unique customer segments very successfully, while Fiat and Chrysler have struggled to produce anything of substantive value. So here’s my thought:

  1. Spin off Jeep-Dodge into their own company. These brands are the most complementary brands in the game in both customers and technology, as can be seen by the now-famous Hellcat and HEMI engines that are advertised and found in both Jeep and Dodge brands. This is a specific example of a brand-transcendent product that is actually extremely hard to get right. Jaguar-Land Rover would look at this pair with extreme envy.
  2. Make Ram a sub-brand to Dodge again. It’s selling well right now in the latest SUV boom, but that’ll come to an end eventually, and I’d not want to be caught holding the bag when that music stops and you have only one product. The new Ram Raptor-fighter will benefit from the awesome engine tech that Dodge and Jeep share, and it’d give the brand back its performance edge on the ultra-hot F-150 and Silverado.
  3. Sell Chrysler to Google. It did not taste well coming out of my mouth, but given Google’s cash hoard, their current dominance in self-driving taxis, and existing partnership with Chrysler around making the Pacifica a self-driving taxi machine, it wouldn’t be a stretch to imagine why Google might want to make this work. Assuming it doesn’t lose money, it’d be like what Google and Apple and all the other tech players that have dominant products do – buy the supplier. In this case, Chrysler’s manufacturing footprint is established and has the processes in place to produce at least as many robo-taxis as Waymo requires. Also, imagine we’re in 2020 and carmakers are competing feverishly with Waymo, Uber, and Lyft for robo-taxi customers. Do you think the automakers are going to be willing to supply their competitors with an unending supply of quality cars? I wouldn’t bet on it. If Google already owned a carmaker, they could dominate this market (something they might do anyway).
  4. Add Alfa Romeo to Ferrari. Ferrari boosted its production when it IPO’d which made shareholders happy and the CEO angry enough to leave, but that won’t keep investors satisfied forever. To maintain the exclusivity of Ferrari while driving value as a company, tucking Alfa Romeo into Ferrari’s fold makes great sense. It also will bolster the reputation by association of Alfa Romeo, a brand that outside of Italy is virtually unknown, but that has strong roots and a distinctive character that could one day put it on the same course as Porsche (maybe). Either way, Alfa could be Ferrari’s growth plan, which would take the pressure off of Ferrari from diluting its brand while injecting some finer breeding into an emerging brand.

As Sergio contemplates his legacy, he’s definitely looking towards not just what to do with FCA, but where and how to leverage FCA’s brands and assets most efficiently. A combination of spin, sell, and move could be in the cards before he hangs his hat for good.

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